Forecasted volume growth calls for planning

Near-term growth forecasts indicate volume growth for domestic and export markets, but it will require careful management to ensure value retention.

The Australian domestic market has established a post covid new normal, and as we cycle over the production disruptions of last year, higher volumes become available. Net migration is poised to bounce back from 41k (FY22) to +200k in FY24. This will drive higher overall food demand and an increased casual labour pool, altering supply chain dynamics.

Export is still focused on China, SE Asia, and India, all of which continue to see middle-class expansion, with higher discretionary dollars. For context, a 5% middle-class growth in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia equates to more people than the entire Australian population. However, most global suppliers, especially those in Southern Hemisphere, have also recognised this opportunity – so we can expect competition to increase in parallel with segment growth.

These growth conditions are good news, but both warrant careful planning. You need to assess and manage which markets, distribution channels, and buyers, will deliver the balance between handling additional volume and capturing value. In these conditions there will be market confidence tipping points, that can flow directly into pricing. Better outcomes will be achieved if these dynamics are understood and managed.

Freshlogic has the capacity to support you in understanding this opportunity.

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